![]() The strongest winds and highest risk of severe weather (including an isolated tornado or two) will accompany the center of the storm system, early Thursday morning. Thursday morning (possibly, hopefully much earlier). To be more specific, I'd put heavy rain over most of New Jersey starting as early as 10 p.m. That's when you'll want to hunker down, as the nastiest, wettest weather blows through Late Wednesday night through Thursday morning. High temperatures on Wednesday will range from the upper 60s (north) to upper 70s (south). It looks like a pretty soggy and dreary day overall. Along with some embedded thunderstorms and downpours. ![]() We'll see pockets of scattered rain throughout the day. Initial rain bands will impact NJ during the daytime hours Wednesday. Overnight lows should fall into the almost-seasonable upper 60s. The chance of rain will slowly increase Tuesday night, especially toward daybreak. Humidity levels will also knock back a bit for all but the southern coast - dew points in the 60s will be much more comfortable than the 70s. Skies will stay mostly cloudy.Ī cold front will slowly sag across New Jersey, potentially driving in a few rain showers through the afternoon and evening hours. And we'll see highs in the warm lower to mid 80s Tuesday afternoon. It's a muggy morning across New Jersey, with temperatures around the 70 degree mark. Although what happens Tuesday will set the stage for its arrival. We're not under the thumb of Ida's remnants just yet. If anything, that notion would drift south - putting heavy rain over central and southern NJ, and the risk of tornadoes south of us. That would put the greatest risk of severe or tornadic thunderstorms in central and southern New Jersey. I'm following along a general consensus of the heaviest rain falling along northern and central New Jersey. Models have flip-flopped back-and-forth, pushing the center of Ida's remnant low through northern and then southern New Jersey. It's just a matter of geography - where the bullseye will end up. And we're now pretty confident about the degree of magnitude for potential impacts too. And that can have a huge impact on "who sees what". Why is this still a challenging forecast? But it will pick up speed as it turns toward the northeast, following a frontal boundary right toward New Jersey. It's made very slow forward progress over the last 24 hours. It is now behaving more like an inland, continental, mid-latitude cyclone.Īs of 5 a.m., the Ida's remnants were moving from Mississippi and Alabama into Tennessee. That means the area of low pressure (storm system or disturbance) is no longer "feeding" on the warm ocean. What was once a major hurricane has now become "extra tropical" or "post tropical". The brunt of the storm will arrive late Wednesday night. (It's already become extra-tropical.) But we are almost certainly facing heavy rain, flooding, severe weather, and even a bit of storm surge. It will not be a hurricane or tropical storm when it gets here. Hopefully by now you've heard that the remnants of Hurricane Ida will bring some nasty weather to New Jersey in the coming days. Wednesday), and also clears out the nasty weather sooner (5 a.m. ![]() Latest guidance suggests the "brunt" of the storm will push in a bit earlier (7 p.m. ![]() We'll still see a few "appetizer" bands of rain during the day tomorrow. ![]() As we've discussed, that means the greatest tornado risk will be in southern NJ (along with 1+ inch of rain). And there's still a clear consensus keeping the heaviest 5+ rain totals (and biggest flooding threat) over the northern half of the state. ![]()
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